Forecasting


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Forecasting
1011102ForecastingForecasting is an art, not a science. Any forecast of phenomena involving people is inherently unreliable and likely to be wrong. All forecasts of social activities involve many arbitrary assumptions and opinions. Users of forecasts need to understand and appreciate this reality.The basic concept of forecasting is to estimate past trends and project them forward. The idea is simple in concept, questionable in execution. To estimate past trends, analysts have to make many assumptions. They have to select a span of data (over time or different circumstances), some principal drivers of the phenomenon being forecast, the form of these factors and of the mathematical model, and future values of their driv…
Citation
Dr. Richard de Neufville; Dr. Amedeo R. Odoni; Dr. Peter P. Belobaba; Dr. Tom G. Reynolds: Airport Systems: Planning, Design, and Management, Second Edition. Forecasting, Chapter (McGraw-Hill Professional, 2013), AccessEngineering Export